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In short, there are three alternatives to a two-state solution. Each will be disastrous – for Israel, that is.

One: Abandon the Zionist vision of a Jewish state and let Palestinians and Jews enjoy equal political rights. This will never happen. There is no way that the Jewish people will agree to live as a minority in a state dominated by an Arab majority. Israel’s supporters in America will have no interest in this outcome.

Two: Israel expels all Palestinians in an act of ethnic cleansing, pretty much like what they did in 1948. This might actually happen, considering the recent Gaza massacre. They are so concerned about the survival of this Jewish state they’re capable of doing just such a sickening thing. However, the Palestinians will put up brutal resistance. There will be lots of blood. Will the West sit back once again? Probably so. This will be the absolute beginning of the end.

Three: Apartheid. This is the most likely outcome. The Arabs will be forced to live in small enclaves with limited autonomy, economically crippled and with no part in the political process. This is pretty much how things are right now.

Democracy in Israel won’t be tolerated, since the Arabs, who are the majority, would dominate its politics.

John Mearsheimer:
Imagine if the roles were reversed and a powerful Palestinian state was taking land away from Jewish inhabitants and brutalizing them in the process. There would rightfully be a storm of protest in the US and across Europe and tremendous pressure would be brought to bear on that Palestinian state to immediately cease exploiting the Jews and permit them to have a state of their own. But when Israelis colonize the West Bank and effectively turn Gaza into a giant prison for the Palestinians who live there, the US government not only does not protest, it backs Israel to the hilt. And that includes Barack Obama.

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This article is based on John Mearsheimer‘s talk in Oslo, October 5th 2009. The personal rants are all mine, though. John doesn’t seem to be a man of swear words…
Huge thanks to John for sending me the speech, both in English and in Norwegian.

Yesterday, Antiwar.com published the article The Israel Lobby, the Neocons, and the Iranian-American Community. It’s well worth reading.

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This article is based on John Mearsheimer‘s talk in Oslo, October 5th 2009. The personal rants are all mine, though. John doesn’t seem to be a man of swear words…
Huge thanks to John for sending me the speech, both in English and in Norwegian.

President Obama is a man of words, but is he a man of action? During his presidential campaign 2008 and since taking office, he made – and still makes – a lot of promises. Regarding U.S. policy in the Middle East he made it very clear that he was committed to settling the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. To do this he would get Israel to stop expanding its settlements in the occupied territories and – in the future – allow the Palestinians to have their own state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
Also, he said that he – as opposed to George W. Bush – believed in diplomatic, serious negotiations with Iran, instead of military attacks and threats of economic sanctions.

However, this will probably never happen, since the Israel Lobby simply won’t allow such humane behaviour.

The Netanyahu government in Israel is opposed to giving the Palestinians their own state, and it is also deeply committed to expanding the settlements. No president will be allowed to play the hardball game with Israel, because the goal is to control the whole West Bank and the Gaza Strip, leaving the Arabs with small enclaves inside Israel – pretty much like a white-ruled South Africa. Read more about zionism here.

As for Iran, it is looked upon as an existential threat to the Jewish state, and the Israel Lobby and its supporters have no interest in talking to a regime who, they believe, wants to ”wipe Israel off the map” (fact is, Ahmadinejad never said that, read more about that in the Propaganda for war article).
Note that Israel is the only country in the world advocating war against Iran. Inside the U.S., there are only pro-Israel individuals and dito organizations who support using force in this case. In fact, there would be little talk about attacking Iran if Israel and the Lobby were not bitching about war all the time. And again: who are the ones in possession of nuclear weapons? Also read this article in The Economist.

Even though Israel constantly do things that the U.S. opposes, they still get more foreign aid – billions of dollars each year – than any other country. Every goddamn American president since 1967 has – in theory, in meek words – opposed settlement-building in the occupied territories, still Israel continues to break the rules. And they’re not being punished – they’re constantly being rewarded. Why is that? The answer: the enormous power of the Israel Lobby. America is completely impotent when it comes to dealing with Israel. Serious criticism of Israel is never heard of from American officials. It’s a joke, really.
Ok, Obama made it very clear that he would like to see a stop of any settlement activity, and that he’d like a Palestinian state. However, Netanyahu also made it very clear that he would not stop, and that he didn’t like the idea of a two-state solution. Who won? Israel, of course. This tiny country in a distant region continue to rule the giant U.S. colossus. Isn’t that strange?

John Mearsheimer:
Netanyahu not only refused to stop building 2500 housing units in the West Bank, but just to make it clear to Obama who was boss, in late June, he authorized the building of 300 new homes in the West Bank. Netanyahu refused to even countenance any limits on settlement building in East Jerusalem, which is supposed to be the capitol of a Palestinian state. In fact, Israel went ahead, despite American protests, and converted an old Arab hotel in East Jerusalem into a Jewish apartment building. The Israelis also expelled two Arab families from their homes that they had lived in for 50 years and issued tenders for 468 new apartments in East Jerusalem.

Obama meekly asked Israel to please ”restrain” itself while it continued colonizing the West Bank.

Talk is cheap.
Change?
Hope?
Yes we can?
No, you can’t. Not when it comes to Israel and the lobby.

The Israel Lobby’s influence is at its peak during the presidential campaigns. You won’t ever witness such a campaign without the mentioning if this tiny but powerful country. 
After Obama had won the election he remained perfectly silent during the recent Gaza massacre. The whole world stood up and criticized Israel for its brutal assault, but Obama kept quiet. A few months later he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize…
I still wonder about all you naïve Obama worshippers who cried during his inaugural speech: when are you going to wake the fuck up?

When reading this, and since it’s such a sensitive subject just mentioning Jews, I think it’s of great importance that you recognize this: the Lobby is defined by its political agenda, not by ethnicity or religion. The Israel Lobby is not necessarily synonymous with Jewish-Americans. The Christian Zionists, for example, that work on Israel’s behalf, are not Jewish.
In other words: your shallow hate mongering about anti-Semitism does not compute.

To be continued…

EDIT:
Monday, 16 november 2009, The Independent publishes an interesting article entitled “Palestinian push for an independent state causes Israeli alarm“. Pretty much says it all…

> I got a letter from John Mearsheimer the other day. I opened and read it, it said they were suckers.

Well, he didn’t say that, really, but he enclosed a speech he gave in Norway recently, and the finishing words read as follows:

“The bottom line is straightforward: President Obama is not going to be able to push Israel to accept a two-state solution. Instead, Israel will continue to colonize the West Bank and eventually turn itself into an apartheid state. Given that grim future, the Israelis are likely to think more and more about expelling the Palestinians from their midst, as they have done in the past. All of this is to say that Netanyahu’s recent victory over Obama was no victory at all. On the contrary, it means that there will be big trouble ahead for Israel, the United States, and especially the Palestinians.“
John Mearsheimer, October 5 2009, Oslo, Norway

I’ll return to John’s speech and letter as soon as possible.
To be able to communicate with the author of the book I’m reading and obviously using as source for these articles is amazing. Hail the internet, freedom of speech and a true and honest debate above all.
Read more about John Mearsheimer.

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 No words can express our gratitude for your generous support, understanding, and cooperation, which are beyond compare in modern history.
Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, 1994

 We’re both born of struggle and sacrifice. We’re both founded by immigrants escaping religious persecution in other lands. We have both built vibrant democracies, built on the rule of law and market economies. And we’re both countries founded on certain basic beliefs: that God watches over the affairs of men, and values every life. These ties have made us natural allies, and these ties will never be broken.
George W. Bush, American Israel Public Affairs Committee speech, 2004

 And I know that when I visit AIPAC I’m among friends, good friends… friends who share my strong commitment to make sure that the bond between the United States and Israel is unbreakable today, unbreakable tomorrow, unbreakable forever.
Barack Obama, AIPAC speech, 2008. Hardly watchable here.

Yitzhak, you’re completely right. U.S. support to Israel pale in comparison.
George, do you think God is proud of what you’re doing? And what’s this bullshit about He who values every life? Whitey, please… Say that to the millions of people you have killed, and the billions of people whose lives your country has ruined over the years.
Barack, your ass kissing is disgusting, and in return you’ll be the most ass-kissed president in U.S. history. What an anal orgasm, huh? Peace, bro!

But seriously, even if Israel had been a poor country, the level of material, economic, military and diplomatic support that the United States provides would have been remarkable. By 2004, Israel, a comparatively small country, had become the world’s eighth largest arm supplier. It is a without a doubt a powerful modern industrial state.

As of 2005, direct U.S. economic and military assistance to Israel amounted to 154 billion dollars. Nowadays Israel receives about three billion dollars per year in direct foreign assistance. These are not loans. They’re grants. Also, Israel is the only country that doesn’t have to account for how the foreign aid is spent. Aid to other countries are given for specific purposes, like children’s health, improving education, etc., but Israel receives a direct cash transfer and there is no way to tell how Israel uses U.S. aid.
In addition to all this craziness, Israel, again as the only country, receives its total cash transfer in the first days of the year, while other countries get their cash in quarterly installments. To make such a huge cash transfer possible, U.S. government needs to borrow the money up front, and it’s estimated that it costs U.S. taxpayers between 50 and 60 million dollars per year to borrow funds for this early year payment.
When given money from the United States as military assistance, countries are normally required to spend the money in the U.S. to help keep American defense workers employed (i.e. to buy U.S. weaponry). This is not the case when it comes to Israel. According to a special exception in some crazy ass bill, Israel is allowed to use about one out of every four dollars on its own defense industry.

However, during the 1950’s, economic aid to Israel was quite modest, and the U.S. did not provide much military assistance at all. It was the Kennedy administration that made the first commitment by selling U.S. Hawk antiaircraft missiles to Israel in 1963. This sale opened up for more weapon deals, most notably the sale of more than two hundred M48A battle tanks in 1964. To disguise American involvement and avoid anger from the Arab world, the tanks were shipped to Israel by West Germany…
Between 1966 and 1970 economic aid was at 102 million dollars per year. In 1971 that support sum was raised to 634.5 million dollars, and after the Yom Kippur War in 1973, economic aid more than quintupled (five times the size!). In 1976 Israel became the largest annual recipient of U.S. foreign assistance, a position it has retained ever since.

Three billion dollars per year is  hardly the whole story, though. The actual total is much higher, since Israel is given money under unusually favorable terms, and the U.S. also provides Israel with lots of other material assistance that is not included in the foreign assistance budget.
America allows Israel, and only Israel, to borrow money from commercial banks at very low interest rates. For example, in the early 1990’s Israel received ten billion dollars to finance the costs of settling Soviet Jews immigrating to Israel.
As for private donations, every year Israel recieves about two billion dollars from American citizens. According to John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt, authors of The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy, one recent (2006) dinner in New York raised 18 millions dollars in private contributions, money which is tax deductible under U.S. law.
Also, the aid that the U.S. provides to Israel’s neighbours – particularly Egypt and Jordan – is at least partly intended to benefit Israel as well. The cash is rewards for good behavior, like when these countries sign peace treaties with Israel. In 1979, when the Egypt-Israeli peace treaty was signed, U.S. aid to Egypt reached 5.9 billion dollars. When King Hussein of Jordan signed a peace treaty in 1994, Jordan’s 700 million dollar debt to America was erased. These are just a couple of examples of Washington’s generosity toward the Jewish state.

Mearsheimer and Walt are constantly being accused of anti-Semitism because of their book. They’ve discussed pretty much each and every accusation in a 73 page long PDF document entitled Setting the Record Straight – A Response to Critics of “The Israel Lobby”.
Read it in case you’re in doubt.

Part One in this series.
An introductory video to the Israel lobby.
The photos they don’t want you to see.